Dakota Oil: Persia on the Plains?

Energy finds in North Dakota and Pennsylvania, as well as Canada, could give investors cheap, low-risk -- albeit unconventional -- entries into oil and gas now, and handsome profits later.

By Jon Markman

Western North Dakota and western Pennsylvania, by which I mean the middle of nowhere, are on track to become the center of the universe for energy companies over the next few years as geologists, speculators and attorneys battle for control of two of the most important and unusual oil and gas finds of the past three decades.

Before the battle is fully defined and winners are awarded the spoils, there's plenty of time for investors to make low-risk bets that could generate great returns over the next few years. There are even cheaper opportunities north of these two hot spots, in the Canadian tundra of Saskatchewan and New Brunswick, which share the same rich rock formations but have yet to attract as much interest.

It may be a little hard to believe that these forlorn areas -- far from the glamorously derrick-dotted plains of Texas, Oklahoma and California -- could yield the sort of riches that attract the diamond-studded-cowboy-hat crowd, but energy exploration has never exactly gone hand in hand with the tourist trade. So put on your mukluks and parka, get out your atlas and prepare for a visit to the Bakken and Marcellus shales.

Going deep

Let's start with western North Dakota, which some in the energy business are now calling Persia on the Plains.

Ramshackle wheat and alfalfa farms up there happen to lie atop the juiciest zone of the underground Bakken Formation, which stretches across 200,000 square miles of Montana and Saskatchewan as well. The heart of the Bakken, which contains three layers of shale that formed when the area was covered with relatively deep ocean, is about 2 miles down.

The rock was initially discovered as an oil source in the mid-1950s, but with extremely low porosity and permeability, it was impossible to exploit fully with conventional drilling techniques when oil was going for less than $50 a barrel.

In recent years however, horizontal drilling and "fractionation" extraction techniques -- invented in U.S. labs and developed in fields from Russia to Argentina -- have opened the formation, and its output is expected to expand exponentially so long as oil prices remain above $60 a barrel. Experts figure it will yield 270 million to 500 billion barrels of oil over its lifetime, which could make the roughly 60 billion barrels of oil of the famed North Slope of Alaska look like a child's mud puddle.